Long-term dynamics of breast cancer indicators in an industrially developed region (Republic of Bashkortostan)

Breast cancer (BC) remains the leading cause of oncological morbidity and mortality among women in both the Russian Federation and worldwide. The aim of the present study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the long-term dynamics of incidence, five-year survival, and one-year mortality from BC in the Republic of Bashkortostan over a fifty-year period (1974–2024), in the context of the evolution of regional and federal oncology services. The material was based on official statistical data from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Bashkortostan for 1974–2024. The analysis included three key indicators: incidence (per 100,000 female population), one-year mortality (%), and five-year survival (%). It was established that over 50 years, the incidence more than doubled – from 8 to 20–21 per 100,000 – while the five-year survival rate increased from 15–20% to over 70%. During the same period, one-year mortality decreased almost threefold – from 11.3% to 3.7% – showing an inverse relationship with survival improvement. Marked fluctuations in the 1980s and 1990s are explained by the unification of reporting systems and structural reforms in oncology care, whereas the short-term deviation observed in 2020 is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. The obtained results confirm a consistent improvement in the efficiency of oncological care and diagnostic measures in the region. The study highlights the importance of comprehensive time-series analysis for the objective assessment of oncology service dynamics and may serve as a model for similar regional investigations.